• Markov chain

  • stochastic process: sequence $X_0,x_1,X_2,\dots$ of r.v.
  • Markov chain
    • let $Q$ be a finite set
    • $\forall i,\text{range}(X_i)\subseteq Q$
  • $X_0,X_1,\dots$ forms a Markov chain if:
    • $\forall n,\forall q\in Q$ $$P(X_n=q|X_{n-1}=q_{n-1})=P(X_n=q|X_0=q_0,X_1=q_1,\dots ,X_{n-1}=q_{n-1})$$
    • 👨‍🎓 i.e. no past memory, except for the latest
  • let $C=(G,\pi ,v_0)$
    • where $G=(V,E)$ a directed graph
    • $\pi :E\to (0,1]$
    • $\forall u\in V,\sum \pi [u,v]=1$
  • let $X_i$ be r.v., current vertex at time $i$
    • and $X_0=v_0$
  • probability space: $(S,F,P)$
    • $S$: set of infinite walks on $G$, starting at $v_0$
      • 👨‍🏫 not countable!

graph LR
       1((1));2((2));
       1<-->2;1-->1;2-->2;

 - <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.6833em;"></span><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.13889em;">F</span></span></span></span>: event

• let $w=v_0{e}_0{v}_1{e}_1,\dots ,v_n$: a finite walk in $G$ $$\begin{array}{r}\text{Ext}(\omega )=\left\{\bar{\omega }\in V^{\omega }|\begin{array}{c}\bar{\omega }\text{ an infinite walk in }G\\ \omega \text{: a prefix of }\bar{\omega }\end{array}\right\}\end{array}$$
• $P(\text{Ext}(\omega ))={\prod }_{i=0}^{n-1}\pi (e_i)$
  • 👨‍🏫 proving that each infinite walk leads to unique event & probability: could be done
  • let $\bar{\omega }\in S$ s.t. $S_i(\bar{\omega })=\bar{\omega }[i]$

• Reachability event

  • let $T\subseteq V$
    • $◊T=\{\bar{\omega }|\exists i\bar{\omega }[i]\in T\}$
      • aka eventually $T$ $$\begin{array}{rl}A=\{\omega |& \omega \text{ is a finite walk on }G\\ & \text{and the last vertex of }\omega \text{ is in }T\}\end{array}$$
  • for every $\omega \in A$, $\text{Ext}(\omega )$ is an event
    • $A$: finite / countable
    • thus, ${\bigcup }_{\omega \in A}\text{Ext}(\omega )$ needed
      • $=◊T$
  • what if: a path visits a vertex more than once?
    • infinite inclusion-exclusion needed
    • 👨‍🏫 instead, we use recurrence
  • $\alpha [v,T]=$ probability of reaching $T$ when the walk starts at $v$
  • case works
    • case 0: if $v$ has no path to $T$
      • $\alpha [v,T]=0$
      • 👨‍🏫 ensures unique solution!
    • case 1: $v\in T$
      • $\alpha [v,T]=1$
    • case 2: $v\notin T$

graph LR
      v((v))
      u_1((u_1))
      u_2((u_2))
      u_ext((...))
      u_k((u_k))
      v--π(v,u_1)-->u_1
      v--π(v,u_2)-->u_2
      v--π(v,...)-->u_ext
      v--π(v,u_k)-->u_k

  - <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;"></span><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.0037em;">α</span><span class="mopen">[</span><span class="mord">0</span><span class="mpunct">,</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.1667em;"></span><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.13889em;">T</span><span class="mclose">]</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span><span class="mrel">=</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:1.0497em;vertical-align:-0.2997em;"></span><span class="mop"><span class="mop op-symbol small-op" style="position:relative;top:0em;">∑</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:-0.2997em;"><span style="top:-1.7003em;margin-left:0em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight"></span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">​</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.2997em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>
  <!-- - further work -->
  - e.g.

graph LR
      1((1))
      2((2))
      3((3,T))
      4((4))
      3--1-->1
      1--0.2-->1
      1--0.2-->3
      1--0.6-->2
      2--0.5-->1
      2--0.5-->3
      4--1-->4

  - <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.5806em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.0037em;">α</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.3011em;"><span style="top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0037em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight">3</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">​</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span><span class="mrel">=</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.6444em;"></span><span class="mord">1</span></span></span></span>
  - <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.5806em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.0037em;">α</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.3011em;"><span style="top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0037em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight">1</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">​</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span><span class="mrel">=</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.7944em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord">0.2</span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.0037em;">α</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.3011em;"><span style="top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0037em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight">1</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">​</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2222em;"></span><span class="mbin">+</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2222em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.7944em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord">0.2</span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.0037em;">α</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.3011em;"><span style="top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0037em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight">3</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">​</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2222em;"></span><span class="mbin">+</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2222em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.7944em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord">0.6</span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.0037em;">α</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.3011em;"><span style="top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0037em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight">2</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">​</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>
  - <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.5806em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.0037em;">α</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.3011em;"><span style="top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0037em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight">2</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">​</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span><span class="mrel">=</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.7944em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord">0.5</span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.0037em;">α</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.3011em;"><span style="top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0037em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight">1</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">​</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2222em;"></span><span class="mbin">+</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2222em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.7944em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord">0.5</span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.0037em;">α</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.3011em;"><span style="top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0037em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight">3</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">​</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>
  - <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.5806em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.0037em;">α</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.3011em;"><span style="top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0037em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight">4</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">​</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span><span class="mrel">=</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.5806em;vertical-align:-0.15em;"></span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.0037em;">α</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.3011em;"><span style="top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0037em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mtight">4</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">​</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>
    - <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.3669em;"></span><span class="mrel">=</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.6444em;"></span><span class="mord">0</span></span></span></span>, according to rule 0
  - <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.8889em;vertical-align:-0.1944em;"></span><span class="mord">∀</span><span class="mord mathnormal">i</span><span class="mpunct">,</span><span class="mspace"> </span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.1667em;"></span><span class="mord">0</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span><span class="mrel">≤</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.7719em;vertical-align:-0.136em;"></span><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.0037em;">α</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span><span class="mrel">≤</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.6444em;"></span><span class="mord">1</span></span></span></span>
- 👨‍🏫 for strongly connected component: all <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.4306em;"></span><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.0037em;">α</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span><span class="mrel">=</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.6444em;"></span><span class="mord">1</span></span></span></span> can be a solution
  - if there is no edge out of strongly connected

• a BSCC: an SCC without an outgoing edge (bottom)
  • claim: in such case, we will reach $T\in BSCC$ w/ $P=1$
• for SCC of $G$
  • $E_i$: set of inf. walks seeing $i$ infinitely often
  • $\square A=$ infinite walks that always remain in $A$
    • i.e. set of vertex not in $T$
• for the following graph

graph LR
    u((u)); v((v))
    u--π(u,v)-->v

<!-- further work -->
- <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;"></span><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.13889em;">P</span><span class="mopen">(</span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.05764em;">E</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.1514em;"><span style="top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0576em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mathnormal mtight" style="margin-right:0.03588em;">v</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">​</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mord">∣</span><span class="mord"><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.05764em;">E</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t vlist-t2"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.1514em;"><span style="top:-2.55em;margin-left:-0.0576em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mathnormal mtight">u</span></span></span></span><span class="vlist-s">​</span></span><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.15em;"><span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span class="mclose">)</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span><span class="mrel">=</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.6444em;"></span><span class="mord">1</span></span></span></span> as
  - probability of not seeing <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.4306em;"></span><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.03588em;">v</span></span></span></span> after <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.4306em;"></span><span class="mord mathnormal">n</span></span></span></span> visits to <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.4306em;"></span><span class="mord mathnormal">u</span></span></span></span>
  - <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.3669em;"></span><span class="mrel">=</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;"></span><span class="mopen">(</span><span class="mord">1</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2222em;"></span><span class="mbin">−</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2222em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:1em;vertical-align:-0.25em;"></span><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.03588em;">π</span><span class="mopen">(</span><span class="mord mathnormal">u</span><span class="mpunct">,</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.1667em;"></span><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.03588em;">v</span><span class="mclose">)</span><span class="mclose"><span class="mclose">)</span><span class="msupsub"><span class="vlist-t"><span class="vlist-r"><span class="vlist" style="height:0.6644em;"><span style="top:-3.063em;margin-right:0.05em;"><span class="pstrut" style="height:2.7em;"></span><span class="sizing reset-size6 size3 mtight"><span class="mord mathnormal mtight">n</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>
- if <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.6986em;vertical-align:-0.0391em;"></span><span class="mord mathnormal">i</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span><span class="mrel">∈</span><span class="mspace" style="margin-right:0.2778em;"></span></span><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.6833em;"></span><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.13889em;">T</span></span></span></span>: reaching <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.6833em;"></span><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.13889em;">T</span></span></span></span> anyway
- if <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.6595em;"></span><span class="mord mathnormal">i</span></span></span></span> is a border vertex:
  - it will leave w/ probability 1, as shown above
- if <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.6595em;"></span><span class="mord mathnormal">i</span></span></span></span> is not a border vertex:
  - it will encounter vertices later in the walk inf. many times
  - and so does the border vertex
  - thus: it will leave w/ probability 1

• 👨‍🏫 what if: $T\notin BSCC$?
  • 👨‍🎓 eliminate $BSCC$, until $CC$ s.t. $T\in CC$ becomes BSCC..?
• or the other way around, let $u$ have multiple predecessors & successors

graph LR
    v_1((v_1))
    v_2((v_2))
    v_3((v_3))
    v_t((v_t))
    u((u))
    vp_1((v'_1))
    vp_2((v'_2))
    vp_3((v'_3))
    vp_t((v'_t))
    v_1-->u
    v_2-->u
    v_3-->u
    v_t-->u
    u-->vp_1
    u-->vp_2
    u-->vp_3
    u-->vp_t

- however, we can eliminate <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.4306em;"></span><span class="mord mathnormal">u</span></span></span></span>!
  - and do so until only <span class="katex"><span class="katex-html" aria-hidden="true"><span class="base"><span class="strut" style="height:0.6833em;"></span><span class="mord mathnormal" style="margin-right:0.13889em;">T</span></span></span></span> remains
- 👨‍🏫 thus: it's unique

• 👨‍🏫 derived problem: what is the probability of reaching the target set infinitely many times?
  • see it again and again